Ahead of the midterms, conservative white rural voters hold the upper hand.

By J. Basil Dannebohm

Andy Ogles is, in a word, odious. The far-right Tennessee Congressman has been a lightning rod for controversy. In 2023, he faced scrutiny for false claims about his resume. In 2024, the FBI confiscated his phone during a campaign finance fraud investigation.

Ogles oogles over Donald Trump’s flagitious nature. Among his legislative accomplishments was the introduction of the "Make Greenland Great Again Act."

In June, he posted a since-deleted message on social media that said, “Homosexuality has no place in America.”

When the post faced fierce backlash from Democrats and Republicans alike, Ogles leveraged a move from the Trump playbook: He blamed the callous sentiments on a staffer.

Back in March, Ogles posted similar remarks, declaring, “Muslims don’t belong in American society.”

Ogles and other Islamophobic Republicans vying for public office in the Volunteer State flooded the airwaves with ads alleging that Muslims were “taking over Tennessee.”

According to data compiled by the World Population Review, Tennessee has an estimated Muslim population of roughly 40,000 residents, which calculates to approximately 0.6% of the state's total population.

Other political ads run by xenophobic Tennessee Republicans claimed the Chinese were taking over the state; in a bizarre reach urging voters to elect candidates who support data centers and “Donald Trump’s America First Agenda.”

Tennessee has, time and again, shown itself to be racist as hell.

Following a deadly school shooting in Nashville, black Democratic State Representatives Justin Jones and Justin Pearson alongside white Representative Gloria Johnson, waged gun reform protests. The Republican-led House voted to expel Jones and Pearson, while sparing Johnson.

In May 2026, shortly after the US Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, Tennessee Republicans redrew the seat occupied by Ogles to favor Trump by 23 points. The chaotic special legislative session split the majority-Black voting bloc of Memphis, sparking protests in the House gallery. State troopers cleared the balcony and detained demonstrators for disrupting an official meeting. Representative Pearson confronted troopers as his brother, Keshan Pearson, and other protesters were taken into custody and booked into the Davidson County Jail.

As one native of Tennessee told me, “They really gerrymandered Memphis into pieces. They put Orange Mound, which is historically black, in the same district as Bedford County, which still has members of the KKK.”

While Mr. Trump endorsed Ogles, the gerrymander ultimately backfired on him.

The far-right firebrand lost his primary race to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Social justice advocates have no need to pop corks in celebration, though. Among Hatcher’s campaign promises was unwavering support for Trump.

The Tennessee defeat marked the President’s second of the week. A Trump-backed candidate in a Michigan district lost to an opponent who had already dropped out of the race.

Trump scored victories elsewhere, though.

In ruby-red Kansas, where gerrymandering efforts were tabled, fierce Trump loyalist, Ty Masterson clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination. He will face Democratic State Representative Cindy Holscher, who chose KC Ohaebosim, a State Senator from Wichita as her running mate.

It’s worth noting that white rural Kansans still seethe when they hear the name “Obama.” The idea that the name “Ohaebosim” will resonate with them is a long shot. I can already hear the most racist among them calling the selection a “DEI hire.”

That, combined with a decades long pattern among Kansas voters suggests that come November, Masterson will be elected to lead the Sunflower State, or as I like to call it, “Koch-istan.”

As my friend from Tennessee observed, “We’re being ruled by a rural minority.”

He’s correct. Recent Republican gerrymandering has created approximately 10 to 14 additional red-leaning U.S. House seats.

And it’s only going to get worse.

As Tom Schaller notes in his book, “White Rural Rage: The Threat to American Democracy”:

“These perversions of power will worsen in the decades ahead. By 2040, 70 percent of Americans will reside in the fifteen most-populous states and choose thirty of the one hundred U.S. senators. Concentrated in smaller and more rural states, the remaining 30% of the population will elect 70 percent of senators. No matter how distorted these population ratios become, each state is guaranteed its two senators – past, present, and forever.”

Between gerrymandering and white rural rage, conservative voters hold the upper hand, often replacing outwardly odious elected officials with insidious ones.

Such is the case with Trump loyalists like Ogles and Masterson.

Hence, those hoping for a blue wave during the 2026 midterms have their work cut out for them. I’d expect a trickle at best.