It's (still) the economy, stupid.
"It's the economy, stupid" is a political catchphrase coined by Democratic strategist James Carville during Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. The “Ragin’ Cajun” scribbled it on a sign in Clinton's Little Rock campaign headquarters as a blunt reminder for staffers to keep their focus keenly fixed on voters' everyday financial concerns. It’s been cemented as a foundational maxim in American politics ever since.
In an article for the Atlantic entitled, “It’s the Morality, Stupid,” author Gal Beckerman offers his analysis of the factors leading to the wave of Democratic victories during the midterms.
Beckerman writes, “This was a chance for vindication, a response not just to Donald Trump’s policies but to the harsh and forbidding worldview he has come to represent.”
He continues.
“The election was about many things, and the polling clearly showed that economic pain topped the list, intertwined with concern about corruption. But alongside it ran a mushier motivation for the blue wave … To channel James Carville, it all felt like the genesis of a new truism about politics: It’s the morality, stupid.”
In true Beckerman fashion, he offers a reasonable assessment.
But will the mushy new truism hold in 2028?
If we’re being honest, Democrats really didn’t offer much of a platform ahead of the midterms. Yet unlike 2024, “Vote for us because we’re not MAGA” paid off in spades.
In a rather Icarus move, hyper-partisan loyalists on the left are gloating. Democratic elected officials, on the other hand, understand the daunting task that lies ahead and the inherent risks associated with flying too close to the sun.
Though they clinched an impressive majority, Democrats still won’t have the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster in the Senate and it takes 67 votes to override a veto. While the next Speaker of the House will be able to pass legislation without support from his or her entire caucus, it will still require Republican assistance to get the 290 votes needed to override any vetoes by the President.
It’s also worth noting that any expectation of a Trump impeachment or prosecutions are pie in the sky.
It requires a “yea” vote from two-thirds of the Senate to remove the President from office; prosecutions are handled by the Justice Department. Then there’s the issue of pardons.
As I cautioned an individual on social media recently:
“Democrats would be wise not to get too cocky. I know a certain demagogue who thought he had a ‘mandate’ and ended up blowing it all to hell. If the left doesn't deliver, they could meet the same fate in 2028. The 120th United States Congress won't be a cake walk. The regime has a series of tricks in store to make things difficult for the new majority. Voters in 2028 won't care about those games, they will only care about results. For proof of this, look no further than angry Republicans who voted blue in 2026.”
Economist Dr. Larry Straub, a professor at Newman University in Wichita, Kansas, offered a sobering reality.
“The president has a big handbrake and it’s called veto power. So, the Democrats and the president, if they’re going to get anything done these next two years, they’re going to have to work together. It’s as simple as that,” Straub said in an interview with local CBS affiliate KWCH.
According to the White House Press Office, Mr. Trump is willing to collaborate with the left.
“Moving forward, the President will work with anyone willing to advance solutions that strengthen our economy. We hope Democrats will put the American people first and join us in that effort,” White House spokesperson Matthew Middleton said in a statement.
Granted, history has demonstrated that Mr. Trump’s actions rarely match his words, much less words spoken on his behalf.
In the political chess game leading up to 2028, Democrats will need to convince conservatives who voted blue in 2026 that their decision wasn’t in vain. Republicans will need to persuade their disgruntled voters that helping the other side resulted in buyers’ remorse.
The economy might prove to be the gambit.
Both sides face considerable risk.
Historical data and voter sentiment offer conflicting perspectives as to which party has a better handle on the U.S. economy. The 2026 “Blue Tsunami” will prove significant one way or the other, though I doubt the mushy morality factor will matter all that much. Either Democrats will deliver or Republicans will almost certainly retain the White House in 2028.
The game is on and it’s (still) the economy, stupid.
